The Second Wave Scare
‘How is it only 18,000 people who have contracted the disease in a population of close to 200 million people?’
Flirting with Numbers
The outbreak of COVID19 in Nigeria as resulted in close to 20,000 cases within the period of 6 months. 6 months was a short time to see 42,238 deaths in the United Kingdom; 26,068 of New York’s finest minds confirmed as COVID19 cases and a global death of close to 500,000 according to the John Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Centre.
Do the numbers matter? As we at a loss on how to count, who to count and where to count; it’s obvious the Nigeria government is flirting with numbers.
As with the communication tradition in Nigeria, a question is often answered with a question. Questions such as ‘why should we believe only about 18,000 people have contracted the disease?’; is best answered with ‘how is it only 18,000 people have contracted the disease in a population of close to 200 million people?’
Numbers are a fundamental part of believing if COVID19 is real in Nigeria. The demand for evidence and the show of the evidence is fast eluding the government and its people.
As it stands
The last place you need political interpretation is epidemic numbers. As it is, the best of medical practitioners are guarded off the national podiums for attempting to scare or rattle the people with their evidence that COVID19 is real.
The various task force team as formulated by the Federal and States government are officiating over matching symptoms and ‘asymptomats’ with no guides.
The instructive dimension of Nigeria’s, Presidential Task Force (PTF) continues to lose its influence and power to direct citizens and state governments on the next steps to battling COVID19 in Nigeria. Most citizens claim to be essential workers including cab drivers who prefer to give nurses ride as a cover for a pass for other riders in the vehicle. To foul arguments between the State governments and NCDC on transmission realities of the disease.
Taskforce and enforcing a difference
How are the residents of a state expected to follow the lead of Abia State Governor, Okezie Ikpeazu who claimed #COVID19 will pass by without infecting Abia residents!
{{
}}
And now a few weeks on, Governor Ikpeazu has tested positive alongside some cabinet members and goes into silence and isolation.
As it stands some residents have taken on many interpretations of what #COVID19 is about including rebellious worship centres.
Video: Church breaks COVID19 policy
Policy directives on school reopening are quite inverted as the Secretary to Government of the Federation, Boss Mustapha says ‘some states are contemplating the opening of schools, television viewing centres… it is not yet safe to do so and that utmost caution should be exercised in this regard.’
Oyo state government believes otherwise.
and yet disbeliefs, it early believes on the readiness to open up the economy.
The Minister of Education, Adamu Adamu, is prompting institutions to reopen schools following the best guidelines of NCDC
“I urge all the Heads of Institution not to wait till the announcement on opening before putting in place all necessary measures in compliance with the protocols and advisories of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC)”.
The doubt of Kogi Government as regards to Nigeria Centre for Disease Control NCDC discovery of COVID19 in the state is a mild and unfathomable truth.
It’s neither bad nor worse
The economy is suffering, the people are suffering as hunger desperation is overseeing the lockdown gatherings in homes in Nigeria. Passive rebellion mixed in advocacy for a palliative to be given to people is summarily leading to a hunger wave.
Poor people becoming ‘most poor’.
Daily income earners are off the street as security operatives are tracking commercial motorcycle operators into dark street corners. It’s also a cruise season for urban crime in Nigeria as a threat to relinquish phones, small jewellery and cash is at many doorsteps. Record-high rape cases and gender-based violence against toddlers, teenagers and women is been witnessed across the nation and world.
Lockdown pressures have baited out sexual predators and crime kingpins.
The disdainful features of COVID19 are remodelling people, society and the resources of the 21st century and truth be told the second wave of infection is building up globally and longer infection periods hangs over Nigeria.
A second wave
Pandemic projections follow low periods of infection and grow to accelerated infection period and then a peak point of infection often follows and sometimes a comeback period is often called a second wave.
That closely describes what usually happens.
A geometric progression of 2 people infecting 2 more people, creating a multiplication infection process is how transmission takes place, (the handshakes, hugs and even utensils sharing).
The Nigeria data on confirmed cases range between the low period of infection and accelerated infection phases, evidently, the numbers are growing.
As with many countries with accelerated infection, people had momentarily stopped believing the test, tracing and transmission of #COVID19. Everyone wants to get back to the treasured freedom of movement and action they often enjoyed.
As lapses and rhythm take over the process of test, tracing and transmission by the Nigerian government, a broken belief on #COVID19 is varying by State to State. Kogi State, Cross Rivers and Bayelsa state on one end of the spectrum believe the absence or end of transmission of the disease. To more zealous believe of Lagos state, Oyo state who have witnessed first hand the claws of the disease within its populace.
The first end of transmission of #COVID19 has not ended but its linger over Nigeria and other Africa countries appear unending. Nigeria may not experience a second wave but an accelerated transmission that would last significantly for almost a year.
Senegal’s city, Touba knew a ‘small Mecca’ for Muslim brethren experienced an increasing trajectory in its tracking of #COVID19 confirmed cases as a trader fell ill with a suspected case of the virus. The initial lockdown seems defeated as new cases showed up in many folds.
"Perhaps it's ignorance or even some denial of the disease...” says Dr Sylla Mbacke, of Touba's main health centre.
Ukraine Prime Minister, Denys Shmygal says he was briefed that the new increases in the country were due to non-compliance with quarantine rules especially the use of face mask is short-changing the victory against the first wave of the disease.
According to Chief Epidemiologist from the Chinese CDC, Wu Zunyou says China is also back on the pandemic map and also with a catch "The virus strain found in Beijing looks like the European strain…and It may be from contaminated goods infected people coming to Beijing. We are doing further research to try to answer this question,"
The policy directive of the Nigerian government is growing from an indicator motive to factual resolve such as
· The lockdown will continue to be eased gradually for economic reasons
· This is a face mask regime
· All states should show they can handle the challenge to an extent and then consideration for providing the intervention fund will be made
· Public health is a public responsibility
· There is a second wave scare
Update: Nigeria has extended its lockdown measures by another month from June 30- July 27, 2020.